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FG’s 10000MW Power Generation Goal Now in Danger

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Last week, there were signs that the delivery of 10,000 megawatts, or MW, under the updated energy sector plan was likely to fail once more.

The important project, originally slated for execution between 2017 and 2021 under the Federal Government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, was extended to December 2022. It outlines the medium-term structural reforms to diversify Nigeria’s economy, with the expansion of power sector infrastructure as a top priority.

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However, industry experts have warned that a number of fundamental issues, such as low investment, inadequate infrastructure, bad maintenance, inadequate gas, a lack of water for hydroelectric power plants, and rising pipeline vandalism, could prevent the aim from being reached.

In particular, they argued that the industry is now suffering from insufficient investment, particularly since several planned projects have not gotten off the ground, depriving the country of the chance to produce more power.

The experts stated that in addition to inadequate gas supply to thermal stations, low water levels at hydro facilities, vandalism, and poor maintenance of existing infrastructure had all hampered power production.

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The National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria, OGSPAN, Maxi Colman Obasi, stated yesterday in a telephone interview with Vanguard: “The power sector requires the deployment of enormous amounts. To design, build, and deliver power plants and other assets requires long-term planning. All signs point to the remaining time being insufficient. It is quite unlikely that the goal would be accomplished.

Kunle Kola Olubiyo, president of the Nigeria Consumer Protection Network, stated in a separate interview with Vanguard that the power sector necessitates long-term planning, investment, development, and maintenance of assets capable of producing, transmitting, and distributing adequate power to consumers across the country.

Nigeria must start producing a lot more power because the current level is woefully insufficient. According to the United Nations, 1,000 MW should be allocated to every million people, thus we need to generate roughly 200,000 MW to serve the more than 200 million people.

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Olubiyo highlighted that several African countries are already ahead of Nigeria in terms of electricity output, comparing the two: “South Africa with a population of roughly 62 million generates over 50,000MW” (50 GW). With a population of over 107 million, Egypt produces more than 50,000 MW (50GW).

Without a stable, reliable, and safe delivery of an adequate power supply, Nigeria’s efforts to achieve inclusive growth, sustainable development, and reductions in the energy poverty indices, food security, power mechanized farming/commercial agriculture, and energy security would invariably be futile.

GenCos criticize DisCos and others.
The electricity generation companies, known as GenCos, stated in their report titled “Spinning Reserves to do or not to do,” which Vanguard was able to obtain: “The inability of the system operator to maintain grid stability to acceptable technical limits has exposed generator units to perform beyond factory rated capability. Frequency deviations outside of the units’ technical permissible limitations increase the machines’ fixed and variable maintenance expenses in addition to harming the units.

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Steel mills are a major source of revenue for both the DisCos and the TCN, but they are bad for the generation machines, according to the GenCos, which also charged them with overloading the system. It is common knowledge that steel mills produce harmonics and lead to extreme voltage swings. The turbine rotors are under a great deal of stress as a result of these harmonics. They cause distortions and breaks in the rotor blades by applying inverse torques to them.

The GenCos have been forced to constantly alter their automatic voltage regulator, or AVR, as a result of this threat. Too many volatile cargoes are transported, primarily by steel mills. According to research, the Nigerian power grid is connected to close to 50 steel mills. Depending on the steel mill, the loads range from 3 to 35 MW and cycle continuously every 6 to 10 minutes from minimum to maximum to minimum.

The aggregate Steel Mills loads, which can easily range from close to 0 MW to 500 MW and back down to close to 0 MW, can easily represent several hundreds of MW. The steel mills have generated enormous challenges in addition to the load unpredictability.

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As a large number of feeders travel during the next rainy season, “The GenCos do not believe that the DisCos are considerably increasing the quality of their distribution feeders.”

why spinning reserve, others critical
More information is provided by the GenCos, who also stated: “In addition to purchasing spinning reserve, there is a requirement for proper monitoring and sanctioning of any players who violate the grid code standard.

“Outages/grid collapses happen when there are system disturbances along the transmission line, and the quick answer, calling up “spinning reserve,” is not readily available since there are few or no providers of this service who are financially rewarded. According to international best practices, 10% of the entire generating capacity should be set aside for spinning reserves. Thus, up to 600MW are needed for the Nigerian grid.

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The biggest loss of power inflow that might be induced by a single trip is known as the “largest credible trip,” which typically refers to the largest generating unit synchronized to the system, however it could also refer to an inflow from an exporting area that flows through a single circuit. (As of 2020, the Egbin plant’s 220MW greatest generating unit was the largest on the system.) The rapid reserve is used to restore system frequency to its nominal value and to balance supply and demand second by second, as specified in section 15.5.2 of the grid code. All parties are required to adhere rigorously to their commitments in accordance with the Grid Code and the other market laws and regulations.

There is no advantage, according to the claim that the system’s inertia, spinning reserve, and governor control on frequency response are insufficient. The only characteristic shared by all synchronous electric power system participants is frequency, which is regarded as a reliable measure of the system’s capacity to manage disruptions and balance supply and demand.

“Spinning reserves are the fastest-responding contingency, making them the most important for preserving the dependability of the power system. The auxiliary service that stops the risky frequency drop is spinning reserve. When a tiny load demand changes, spinning reserve is offered automatically to keep the system frequency within predetermined bounds (50Hz).

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